Seasonal ist ein Upside Ausbruch wahrscheinlicher, aber was im Moment zählt sind Anleiherenditen.
Update 10:30 Uhr: Auktion von Staatsanleihgen prägen heute das Bild:
AUCTION PREVIEW: FR EUR 6-7bln combined 2.00% Sep’13, 2.00% Jul’15, 2.25% Feb’16 and 2.50% Jul’16 BTAN Auctions
Fixed Income08:52 17-11-2011 Today the French Debt Agency is conducting its combined 2.00% Sep’13, 2.00% Jul’15, 2.25% Feb’16 and 2.50% Jul’16 BTAN auctions where it expects to raise an amount in the range of between EUR 6-7bln. In terms of historical data:
- The 2.00% Sep’13 BTAN was last auctioned in Oct’11 with a bid/cover ratio of 2.05 (yield 1.310%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 2.50 (average yield 1.330%).
- The 2.00% Jul’15 BTAN was last auctioned in Oct’11 with a bid/cover ratio of 1.97 (yield 1.960%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 2.10 (average yield 1.933%).
- The 2.25% Feb’16 BTAN was last auctioned in Apr’11 with a bid/cover ratio of 2.03 (yield 2.940%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 2.15 (average yield 2.753%).
- The 2.50% Jul’16 BTAN line was last auctioned in Oct’11 with a bid/cover ratio of 3.63 (yield 2.3100%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 2.45 (average yield 2.2100%).
French government debt has come under pressure recently primarily due to the exposure of country’s banks to troubled Eurozone states, with some focus also on France’s poor track record in managing its debt. It is worth noting that yesterday Germany had a technically uncovered Schatz auction, and it will be interesting to see if investors would rather opt for shorter-dated French government debt having already rejected those from Germany.
Today is the penultimate French auction of the year, which will complete 96% of its 2011 funding requirement. It is worth noting that France has so far raised EUR 532.57bln in 2011. Results are expected between 0945-1000 GMT.
AUCTION PREVIEW: UK GBP 4bln 5.0% 2018 Conventional Gilt Auction
Fixed Income08:52 17-11-2011 Today the UK DMO is conducting its 5.0% 2018 conventional Gilt auction, where it expects to raise approximately GBP 4bln. This Gilt line was last auctioned in Feb’10 with a bid/cover ratio of 1.99 (yield of 3.693%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 2.16 (average yield 4.390%).
It is worth noting that the UK has so far raised GBP 268.38bln in 2011. Bids are submitted by 1030 GMT, and results are expected between 1035-1045 GMT.
AUCTION PREVIEW: US 2-, 5-, and 7-year Note Refunding Announcement
Fixed Income08:52 17-11-2011 Today the US Treasury is due to announce the size of 2-, 5-, and 7-year Note auctions, where analysts expect it to announce USD 35bln of 2-year notes, USD 35bln of 5-year notes and USD 29bln of 7-year notes. The total amount is expected to be USD 99bln.
Announcement is expected to be published shortly after 1600GMT.
AUCTION PREVIEW: SP EUR 4bln 5.85% Jan’22 Bond Auction
Fixed Income08:52 17-11-2011 Today the Spanish Treasury is conducting its 5.85% 31-Jan-22 bond auction, where it expects to raise an amount in the range of EUR 4bln.
This is the first tap on this new line. For comparison purposes we can compare it with the 5.55% Apr’21 line, which was last auctioned in Oct’11 with a bid cover ratio of 1.76 (yield 5.433%). The last three auctions on this line have seen an average bid/cover ratio of 1.83 (yield 5.5747%).
Spain has remained in focus in the last week due to concerns surrounding the country’s debt and political uncertainty ahead of this weekend’s general election. The yield on the Spanish 10-year government bond has persistently traded above the 6% level and the Spanish/German 10-year government bond yield spread has recently touched on Euro-era record above the key 450BPS level. In spite of this markets witnessed successful T-Bill auctions from Spain on Tuesday and there is also EUR 6.2bln in redemption flow due in tomorrow. Finally today’s EUR 4bln offering is the equivalent of 27k contracts in fresh bund supply so be mindful of this ahead of the bidding deadline at 0930 GMT.
It is worth noting that Spain has so far raised EUR 150.24bln in 2011. Results are expected between 0930-0945 GMT.
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| Die gepuntete Linie im Oszi Chart nun rot und das bedeutet niedriger ADX -> Ausbruchsmodus |
So ich probiers mal.
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